1 00:00:02,950 --> 00:00:08,440 [Music] 2 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,440 I 3 00:00:30,630 --> 00:00:33,680 [Music] 4 00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:43,360 welcome to a special us election night 5 00:00:40,160 --> 00:00:46,399 edition of Sputnik coming to you from 6 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:49,960 our Westminster Studio With Me George 7 00:00:46,399 --> 00:00:53,320 Galloway and me gatri and our special 8 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:56,680 guest our American political expert 9 00:00:53,320 --> 00:01:00,359 Professor inder Jeet parmar before I 10 00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:03,719 turn to him let me just point out that 11 00:01:00,359 --> 00:01:07,840 the British Parliament behind me appears 12 00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:11,320 to be somewhat in darkness at least dark 13 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:14,200 edged and that might be because the 14 00:01:11,320 --> 00:01:18,360 political class everywhere in the world 15 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:21,560 is about to enter a period of mour 16 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:25,040 because although we don't know the final 17 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:27,560 result of the US Presidential epic 18 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:30,479 contest what we do know is that it's 19 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:33,439 been the most dramatic political fight 20 00:01:30,479 --> 00:01:37,920 of the century and I don't exclude 21 00:01:33,439 --> 00:01:42,600 George W Bush's dramatic win in the year 22 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:46,040 2000 great divisions great cleavages 23 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:48,759 have been revealed in American society 24 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:52,240 and it may be difficult for the US to 25 00:01:48,759 --> 00:01:55,079 put Humpty Dumpty back together again 26 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:58,280 but enough for me a gted uh gifted 27 00:01:55,079 --> 00:02:01,119 amateur let's hear from the professional 28 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:04,200 professor inderjit we don't know the 29 00:02:01,119 --> 00:02:06,840 final result but we know enough don't we 30 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:09,959 to know that the political class just 31 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:11,000 like in the brexit referendum contest 32 00:02:09,959 --> 00:02:13,319 has been 33 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:15,680 confounded it does look that way up to 34 00:02:13,319 --> 00:02:17,800 now um certainly from some of the 35 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:19,360 results that we've seen um and it does 36 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:21,680 seem to be echoing what happened in the 37 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:24,440 brexit vote which was suggested to be a 38 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:27,879 very close win for remain but ended up 39 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:30,800 being a a tight win for for leave it 40 00:02:27,879 --> 00:02:33,599 does suggest really that PO methods are 41 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:35,879 not reaching everybody who is actually 42 00:02:33,599 --> 00:02:37,920 playing a decisive role in these kinds 43 00:02:35,879 --> 00:02:40,800 of Elections and there are people out 44 00:02:37,920 --> 00:02:42,560 there who are probably previously 45 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:45,879 politically inactive or not voting 46 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:49,599 before but who seem to be uh inspired to 47 00:02:45,879 --> 00:02:51,680 vote by the kind of candidacies or or 48 00:02:49,599 --> 00:02:53,560 the campaigns run by people from outside 49 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:55,760 of the spectrum who are not actually 50 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,760 accepting the status quo quite in the 51 00:02:55,760 --> 00:03:00,120 way that uh people were were believing 52 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:02,680 that they would well 15% of them were 53 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:04,560 new voters yeah was that a surprising 54 00:03:02,680 --> 00:03:07,640 number for you well it's not a 55 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:10,159 surprising number but what is surprising 56 00:03:07,640 --> 00:03:13,760 is that they don't appear in the polls 57 00:03:10,159 --> 00:03:15,519 yeah so that it's clear that the polling 58 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:18,239 organizations themselves need to do 59 00:03:15,519 --> 00:03:21,120 something in order to reach a wider 60 00:03:18,239 --> 00:03:24,879 cross-section of the population um but 61 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:27,239 in the end we're all uh reliant on the 62 00:03:24,879 --> 00:03:28,760 most sort of scientific methods of 63 00:03:27,239 --> 00:03:32,400 polling which have been available and 64 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:34,560 people like um Nate Silva and 538 his 65 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:37,640 website run by mathematicians and 66 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:40,319 statisticians of some stature uh 67 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:43,439 appeared to have been getting it wrong 68 00:03:40,319 --> 00:03:46,840 well let me advance one reason why and 69 00:03:43,439 --> 00:03:50,120 it's a factor in this 70 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:53,159 election the 15% of new 71 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,519 voters and the tremendous turnout in 72 00:03:53,159 --> 00:03:58,680 places like Michigan which wasn't even 73 00:03:55,519 --> 00:04:01,519 in play a few days ago and which Trump 74 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,799 might well have one if not one then come 75 00:04:01,519 --> 00:04:06,599 very close to 76 00:04:02,799 --> 00:04:09,599 winning this is the poor the working 77 00:04:06,599 --> 00:04:12,040 class in the meanest streets where 78 00:04:09,599 --> 00:04:14,720 pollsters quite frankly don't go and 79 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:18,799 that reveals another of the issues I'd 80 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:21,759 like you to comment on there's a bubble 81 00:04:18,799 --> 00:04:24,479 it's a Westminster bubble it's a Beltway 82 00:04:21,759 --> 00:04:27,400 bubble in the United States in which 83 00:04:24,479 --> 00:04:30,199 experts talk to each other when I 84 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:34,199 predicted on Twitter that Donald Trump 85 00:04:30,199 --> 00:04:37,000 was going to win there was a deluge from 86 00:04:34,199 --> 00:04:39,280 liberals and people from the chattering 87 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:41,960 class working in television working in 88 00:04:39,280 --> 00:04:44,320 media and so on these people talk to 89 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:46,600 themselves they have no idea what's 90 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:50,680 going down on the streets either of 91 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:54,120 Rochdale and Rotherham or of Michigan 92 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:56,600 and Ohio I think you're right I think 93 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:58,280 the fact is that we all live in certain 94 00:04:56,600 --> 00:05:00,199 kinds of bubbles we do talk to each 95 00:04:58,280 --> 00:05:02,560 other we we are kind much more 96 00:05:00,199 --> 00:05:05,039 inward-looking and I think to some 97 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:07,160 extent that is to do with professional 98 00:05:05,039 --> 00:05:09,400 groups they tend to stick together in 99 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:11,360 various ways and thereby talk each other 100 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:13,320 into a reality which may have very 101 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:17,080 little relationship with what is going 102 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:18,600 on outside but I think it's also because 103 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:20,560 various studies done among those 104 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:22,919 communities have suggested that there 105 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:25,360 are certain communities which are out of 106 00:05:22,919 --> 00:05:27,520 play um if you look at labor party for 107 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:28,840 example from the 1980s onwards 108 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,919 effectively went with the sort of 109 00:05:28,840 --> 00:05:32,919 sociological stud which suggested that 110 00:05:30,919 --> 00:05:36,160 the industrial organized working class 111 00:05:32,919 --> 00:05:38,199 was no longer a a coherent grouping 112 00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,520 which had a kind of political saleny at 113 00:05:38,199 --> 00:05:43,039 all and therefore the strategy had to 114 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:44,960 shift to new blocks of Voters who were 115 00:05:43,039 --> 00:05:47,160 much more aspirational they wanted to 116 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:49,000 enter the middle classes and therefore 117 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,919 they were going to vote differently and 118 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,919 therefore labor had to drop various 119 00:05:50,919 --> 00:05:55,720 elements of its core programs 120 00:05:52,919 --> 00:05:57,199 nationalization clause for and the like 121 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:59,120 and I think that is actually what has 122 00:05:57,199 --> 00:06:02,080 happened that those people have been 123 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:04,199 effectively written out of politics and 124 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:06,240 history almost and I think they are now 125 00:06:04,199 --> 00:06:07,880 making a comeback they are basically 126 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:10,199 saying that they are not going to be 127 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:12,759 ignored anymore and they're taking the 128 00:06:10,199 --> 00:06:15,199 opportunities being provided by 129 00:06:12,759 --> 00:06:16,840 unorthodox candidates in this case and I 130 00:06:15,199 --> 00:06:18,520 would say this is being provided to some 131 00:06:16,840 --> 00:06:20,880 extent from left and right in the 132 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,800 American election Donald Trump and 133 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:26,280 Bernie 134 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:30,000 Sanders left and right difference is 135 00:06:26,280 --> 00:06:33,599 collapsing and now since Sanders is um 136 00:06:30,000 --> 00:06:37,440 defeat in the Democratic uh nomination 137 00:06:33,599 --> 00:06:40,120 in the primaries um quite a number of 138 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:42,520 his supporters went straight over to 139 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:44,319 Donald Trump arguing that it was against 140 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:46,560 the establishment that had that they 141 00:06:44,319 --> 00:06:49,160 were they backing Bernie sers so they 142 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:52,080 weren't afraid of his policies and and 143 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:55,000 his fear mongering I think there is such 144 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:57,759 a deep alienation from the political 145 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:59,599 establishment from the way in which the 146 00:06:57,759 --> 00:07:01,120 great thing that people saw about Bernie 147 00:06:59,599 --> 00:07:05,199 Founders and by Donald Trump but they 148 00:07:01,120 --> 00:07:07,800 were far less immersed in the political 149 00:07:05,199 --> 00:07:09,560 class in general and they were talking a 150 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:11,639 language which was straight and it was 151 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:14,000 all about inequality the fact that 152 00:07:11,639 --> 00:07:16,160 there's a whole system of politics and 153 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:19,080 economy and so on which was rigged 154 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:20,639 against Ordinary People in various ways 155 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,360 and the early part of Donald Trump's 156 00:07:20,639 --> 00:07:24,280 campaign there was quite a lot said 157 00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:26,080 about Wall Street and so on and Wall 158 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:29,319 Street returned the compliment to him by 159 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:31,199 giving him very little money indeed but 160 00:07:29,319 --> 00:07:34,160 there there is on left and right and I 161 00:07:31,199 --> 00:07:36,319 think here in lies a deep crisis and the 162 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:38,840 crisis was represented effectively by 163 00:07:36,319 --> 00:07:41,759 Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton if you 164 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:45,120 like was the sort of the the person with 165 00:07:41,759 --> 00:07:48,000 a finger in the Dyke um trying to 166 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:50,400 personification of the political class 167 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:53,080 and as you and I have discussed before 168 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:55,840 it's no accident That Wall Street paid 169 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:59,800 overwhelmingly for her campaign and gave 170 00:07:55,840 --> 00:08:02,720 virtually nothing to Trump and Hillary 171 00:07:59,800 --> 00:08:06,159 is now paying big time for her 172 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:09,680 subservience to Wall Street and its 173 00:08:06,159 --> 00:08:12,080 antithesis her uh carelessness about 174 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:15,759 Main Street because you can't care about 175 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:18,919 Wall Street and Main Street uh her 176 00:08:15,759 --> 00:08:21,800 support for NAFTA there was no Senator 177 00:08:18,919 --> 00:08:24,280 more assiduous in promoting the North 178 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:26,400 American free trade area which has 179 00:08:24,280 --> 00:08:28,960 devastated the industrial areas of the 180 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:30,120 US with production being moved out of 181 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:33,839 the US 182 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:36,519 mainly to Mexico so that as we just 183 00:08:33,839 --> 00:08:39,719 heard you can you used to be able to 184 00:08:36,519 --> 00:08:43,120 build cars in Michigan and but you 185 00:08:39,719 --> 00:08:44,959 couldn't drink the water in uh Mexico 186 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:47,800 but now the cars are made in Mexico and 187 00:08:44,959 --> 00:08:51,720 you can't drink the water in Michigan 188 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:55,120 and thirdly her antipathy to Russia 189 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:59,000 which she has mentioned more often than 190 00:08:55,120 --> 00:09:01,480 any other issue in the whole campaign uh 191 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:04,079 I forget how many times now but it's 192 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:06,839 hundreds and hundreds of times her 193 00:09:04,079 --> 00:09:09,880 determination to confront Russia in 194 00:09:06,839 --> 00:09:12,320 Syria the danger of our taking America 195 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:14,399 into yet another War people have 196 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:17,320 recoiled from all these things yes 197 00:09:14,399 --> 00:09:18,920 correct I think all the opinion polls 198 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:21,320 and here I think opinion polls have been 199 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:24,200 correct the attitude surveys from the 200 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:27,200 time of George W bush around 2005 2006 201 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:29,000 when the Iraq war or the occupation went 202 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:32,079 pear-shaped and it broke out into pretty 203 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:33,600 much a full scale Civil War and you got 204 00:09:32,079 --> 00:09:36,440 the sacking of Donald Rumsfeld the 205 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:40,360 Secretary of Defense at that time it's 206 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:42,560 been a steady increase of the proportion 207 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:45,160 of Americans who do not want the United 208 00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:47,360 States either to be unilateral or to put 209 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:49,720 itself out there in front of everybody 210 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:52,480 effectively dominating the world or 211 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:55,160 Without Partners without un approval and 212 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:56,920 so on and that if you like that tendency 213 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,720 has been very powerful and that has come 214 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,880 through it came through to some extent 215 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:03,079 in the sand 216 00:09:59,880 --> 00:10:04,800 base although Less in his campaign but 217 00:10:03,079 --> 00:10:08,000 it came through very strongly within 218 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:09,560 Donald Trump's own campaign as well and 219 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:12,839 that has been ignored but Hillary 220 00:10:09,560 --> 00:10:14,519 Clinton is a hardcore mainstream 221 00:10:12,839 --> 00:10:17,600 supporter of the liberal International 222 00:10:14,519 --> 00:10:20,279 order in all its idealized versions from 223 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:22,000 1945 onwards she believes in all the 224 00:10:20,279 --> 00:10:24,200 alliances and all the treaties and all 225 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:26,160 the kind of General economic financial 226 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:28,200 and other arrangements International 227 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:30,040 Arrangements which have been set up she 228 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:32,680 is the personification she is the 229 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:36,320 supporter of it she believes it she's a 230 00:10:32,680 --> 00:10:38,120 she's an ideologue for it um and but she 231 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:42,480 was the only one who survived if you 232 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:44,000 like within this contest between 17 uh 233 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:46,200 uh Republicans who fought in the 234 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:48,120 primaries and the various Democrats and 235 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:50,399 so on and forth she was the only one who 236 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:53,279 survived in the end who supported the 237 00:10:50,399 --> 00:10:54,760 system as it is Donald Trump doesn't 238 00:10:53,279 --> 00:10:56,639 come from within that system in that 239 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:59,000 same way and Bernie Sanders doesn't 240 00:10:56,639 --> 00:11:01,639 either but they collectively got a very 241 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:03,839 very large number 29 million primary 242 00:11:01,639 --> 00:11:06,320 votes they got far more than anybody 243 00:11:03,839 --> 00:11:08,720 else so what this was telling us is that 244 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:11,240 actually the the center so-called Center 245 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:14,760 which Hillary Clinton represents has 246 00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:17,120 shrunk to a very very small number and 247 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,600 that effectively there are people who 248 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:21,519 are coming from outside the system who 249 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:24,279 are saying this system no longer serves 250 00:11:21,519 --> 00:11:26,680 the American people in any way shape or 251 00:11:24,279 --> 00:11:28,920 form well it was said of the Bourbons 252 00:11:26,680 --> 00:11:31,680 that they learned nothing and forgot 253 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:34,959 nothing and thus they were overthrown in 254 00:11:31,680 --> 00:11:37,920 the French Revolution and that it seems 255 00:11:34,959 --> 00:11:40,560 uh to be the case maybe happening in the 256 00:11:37,920 --> 00:11:43,240 United States this evening is arguably 257 00:11:40,560 --> 00:11:45,519 happening elsewhere and you rightly 258 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:48,360 identify that it can break left and it 259 00:11:45,519 --> 00:11:49,959 can break right and in the second half 260 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:53,000 of the show we'll have to tease that out 261 00:11:49,959 --> 00:11:57,240 a bit more because on the face of it 262 00:11:53,000 --> 00:12:01,480 Donald Trump is himself a plutocrat born 263 00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:04,720 with several Golden Spoon in his mouth 264 00:12:01,480 --> 00:12:06,920 fantastically rich and unlikely 265 00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:10,760 Spartacus for the 266 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:14,240 downtrodden now unemployed workers in in 267 00:12:10,760 --> 00:12:16,880 in Michigan and yet and yet the key 268 00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:19,920 point for the voter seems to have been 269 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:22,040 that he was not one of them he might be 270 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:25,079 rich but he's not rich and in the 271 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:28,399 political class he's not rich and got 272 00:12:25,079 --> 00:12:29,720 his pockets filled with Wall Street uh 273 00:12:28,399 --> 00:12:32,199 uh money 274 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:33,959 um and of course we've seen it break to 275 00:12:32,199 --> 00:12:36,320 the left here in Britain with Jeremy 276 00:12:33,959 --> 00:12:39,440 Corbin's Victory we saw the strength of 277 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:42,600 Bernie Sanders campaign in France it's 278 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:46,079 breaking to the right yes with the front 279 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:49,120 National and maybe other places too it's 280 00:12:46,079 --> 00:12:52,639 a fascinating and even slightly 281 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:55,880 dangerous uh prospect that lies ahead of 282 00:12:52,639 --> 00:12:58,959 us but the center cannot hold there'll 283 00:12:55,880 --> 00:13:01,120 be much more where this came from after 284 00:12:58,959 --> 00:13:01,120 the 285 00:13:02,890 --> 00:13:07,440 [Music] 286 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:10,040 break welcome back to a special us 287 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:12,600 election night special edition of 288 00:13:10,040 --> 00:13:15,399 Sputnik we're talking with Professor 289 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:18,240 inderjit parar a very considerable 290 00:13:15,399 --> 00:13:22,519 expert on American Affairs and indeed 291 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:26,399 politics in general uh Professor I'm 292 00:13:22,519 --> 00:13:29,880 getting news that the Mexican peso has 293 00:13:26,399 --> 00:13:32,360 gone through the floor at the 294 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:35,120 possibility maybe edging towards a 295 00:13:32,360 --> 00:13:38,680 probability certainly a possibility of a 296 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:42,360 trump presidency the Dow futures are 297 00:13:38,680 --> 00:13:46,120 down 300 when they were up yesterday 298 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:49,360 several hundred uh on the prospects of a 299 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:52,639 a comparatively easy Clinton 300 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:55,519 Victory if Trump is to be the president 301 00:13:52,639 --> 00:13:59,480 of the United States what will the 302 00:13:55,519 --> 00:14:02,160 impact be on markets and on foreign 303 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:04,120 capitals around the world that's a 304 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:06,519 really good question and it's it's 305 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:10,759 likely to be very very negative um the 306 00:14:06,519 --> 00:14:12,519 American economy um is is strong but 307 00:14:10,759 --> 00:14:15,160 confidence in the American economy needs 308 00:14:12,519 --> 00:14:17,880 to be strong too and it would look as if 309 00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:20,759 America's entering a period of increased 310 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:22,480 instability as a result of if Donald 311 00:14:20,759 --> 00:14:25,839 Trump wins the 312 00:14:22,480 --> 00:14:28,720 election there's two things here one is 313 00:14:25,839 --> 00:14:32,079 if the House of Representatives remains 314 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:35,160 in uh Republican hands seems likely and 315 00:14:32,079 --> 00:14:37,160 the Senate remains in Republican hands 316 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:40,320 too also seems 317 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:43,199 likely then if that those are true and 318 00:14:40,320 --> 00:14:44,320 Donald Trump wins he has been rowing 319 00:14:43,199 --> 00:14:46,040 back on a number of his 320 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,720 anti-conservative 321 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:51,360 positions on taxation for example of the 322 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:54,800 rich uh and on welfare spending and so 323 00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:56,279 on as well uh and has appointed uh the 324 00:14:54,800 --> 00:14:58,399 former president of the Heritage 325 00:14:56,279 --> 00:15:01,000 Foundation Ed felner to his campaign 326 00:14:58,399 --> 00:15:03,120 transition team team he has also taken 327 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:06,040 up the Heritage foundation's U blueprint 328 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:09,480 for reform military policy which is 329 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:11,680 contradictory to his broader statements 330 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:14,279 about the what appeared to be America 331 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:17,279 first or isolationist some people say 332 00:15:14,279 --> 00:15:19,199 about drawing back a lot more and being 333 00:15:17,279 --> 00:15:20,959 sort of uh more selective about the kind 334 00:15:19,199 --> 00:15:23,720 of engagements that they would take 335 00:15:20,959 --> 00:15:26,160 place if those are true then what we 336 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:30,120 could then see with a transactional 337 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:32,319 president uh like uh Trump would be 338 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:34,319 would be the ability to do deals with 339 00:15:32,319 --> 00:15:37,160 the Republican held 340 00:15:34,319 --> 00:15:40,639 Congress I you're you're you're 341 00:15:37,160 --> 00:15:42,680 absolutely right that in fact the 342 00:15:40,639 --> 00:15:46,880 likelihood is that Trump will make a 343 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:49,440 sharp right turn if he enters the White 344 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:52,519 House but that will leave the voting 345 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:55,680 base that just put him in seething with 346 00:15:52,519 --> 00:15:58,319 anger once they realize that because the 347 00:15:55,680 --> 00:16:01,319 Heritage Foundation has nothing to offer 348 00:15:58,319 --> 00:16:03,880 the unemploy steel workers in Ohio right 349 00:16:01,319 --> 00:16:06,120 correct correct so there will have to be 350 00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:08,800 something so this contest is between the 351 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:12,360 devil and be abub isn't it I don't know 352 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:16,680 who that is but beab is another okay 353 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:18,199 Satan Satan and the devil okay well yeah 354 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:20,639 I I'm not a religious person so I don't 355 00:16:18,199 --> 00:16:22,720 know about Good and Evil so much but I 356 00:16:20,639 --> 00:16:25,000 but it is a it is a very very difficult 357 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:27,480 choice for American people because in 358 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:29,800 the end this is a billionaire we're 359 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:32,680 talking about someone who is has evaded 360 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:34,839 taxes or avoided taxes at the very least 361 00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:36,319 hasn't paid very much tax over the years 362 00:16:34,839 --> 00:16:37,880 paid for 18 years believes it's a very 363 00:16:36,319 --> 00:16:39,839 smart thing to do he says that that 364 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,680 makes me smart and he's also going to 365 00:16:39,839 --> 00:16:44,120 organize the biggest tax giveaway 366 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,880 probably since George W bush before him 367 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,680 and 368 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:50,000 probably deeply damaged the federal 369 00:16:47,680 --> 00:16:51,560 government's finances I don't think 370 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:53,399 there's very much that he's going to be 371 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:55,360 able to offer in a big way to those 372 00:16:53,399 --> 00:16:58,560 industrial workers in Michigan and in 373 00:16:55,360 --> 00:17:00,480 Pennsylvania and in other places where 374 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:02,120 they feel threatened by Hillary and by 375 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,679 those free trade agreements that she 376 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:07,439 called gold standard and so on the fact 377 00:17:04,679 --> 00:17:08,839 is though however that politics is 378 00:17:07,439 --> 00:17:11,480 politics and in the end they're going to 379 00:17:08,839 --> 00:17:13,640 have to do something to have some kind 380 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,439 of a concession to those workers and he 381 00:17:13,640 --> 00:17:17,959 has suggested infrastructure spending 382 00:17:15,439 --> 00:17:22,280 for example u in various ways without 383 00:17:17,959 --> 00:17:25,240 too an FDR uh in in the in Waiting that 384 00:17:22,280 --> 00:17:27,919 we just haven't not quite FDR not quite 385 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:29,559 FDR but certainly someone who can see 386 00:17:27,919 --> 00:17:31,679 that in order to 387 00:17:29,559 --> 00:17:33,240 solidify some kind of a basee you're 388 00:17:31,679 --> 00:17:34,960 going to have to do something practical 389 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:37,520 well I tell you know how they like the 390 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:41,360 third way over there my wife's got a 391 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:43,720 third way she wants Obama to stay on I 392 00:17:41,360 --> 00:17:45,640 mean if Obama could just declare that he 393 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:48,240 he can't find his shoes and will until 394 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:49,840 the 29th of January yeah yeah he can't 395 00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:51,919 find his shoes he can't find his coat 396 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:55,240 and hat so he's just going to have to 397 00:17:51,919 --> 00:17:57,360 stay there how do you see as we now come 398 00:17:55,240 --> 00:18:00,000 to the end of it how do you see 399 00:17:57,360 --> 00:18:03,039 President Obama's uh uh 400 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:05,320 Legacy I think there are many ways in 401 00:18:03,039 --> 00:18:07,880 which one can look at a legacy and I 402 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:10,120 think I think history will probably see 403 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,440 Barack Obama as one of the very best 404 00:18:10,120 --> 00:18:14,280 presidents and probably a great 405 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:16,520 president in time he's leaving at a very 406 00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:19,200 with a high very high level approval 407 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:22,280 sort of Bill Clinton of course yeah uh 408 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:25,760 but I think he when you look back at 409 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:27,679 2008 um you have the Iraq War crisis you 410 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:30,000 have the Meltdown of the financial 411 00:18:27,679 --> 00:18:31,440 system uh in the United States and 412 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:34,000 having its Global 413 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:36,520 repercussions you have he's probably 414 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:38,280 inherited I think in my view a legacy 415 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:41,520 which was a kind of combination of 416 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:44,960 Franklin Delena Roosevelt in 1932 lynon 417 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:46,960 Johnson around 1966 when the uh Vietnam 418 00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:49,039 war is going pear-shaped and probably 419 00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:51,880 about 1976 with Jimmy Carter when 420 00:18:49,039 --> 00:18:54,640 Vietnam has there's been a defeat there 421 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:56,760 and the level of demoralization and a 422 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:59,400 desire for change is so great within the 423 00:18:56,760 --> 00:19:02,280 American population and it's Global 424 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:05,200 standing is so low so when you inherit 425 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:07,880 all those crises uh and you come through 426 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:10,159 in in with two terms as the first 427 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:13,559 African-American president too with a 428 00:19:10,159 --> 00:19:16,720 massive kind of uh racialized campaign 429 00:19:13,559 --> 00:19:19,200 against him run by uh who we may think 430 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:22,039 may be the next president um then we see 431 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:25,640 actually somebody who's got great uh 432 00:19:22,039 --> 00:19:27,480 sort of resilience and uh great power um 433 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:29,799 and I think we'll probably be able to 434 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:32,120 say at the end that he probably saved 435 00:19:29,799 --> 00:19:33,840 American capitalism by some of the the 436 00:19:32,120 --> 00:19:35,880 bailouts that he organized and carried 437 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:38,720 out and so on whether he solved the 438 00:19:35,880 --> 00:19:40,480 basic problem I don't think he did and I 439 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:43,320 think that is part of why tonight's 440 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:47,559 election uh would seem to indicate that 441 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:50,320 he didn't I have a far less idealized uh 442 00:19:47,559 --> 00:19:52,880 version of the Obama years but I'll 443 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:56,200 Grant you he certainly could have been 444 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:58,919 much worse if uh if uh the Republicans 445 00:19:56,200 --> 00:20:01,280 had defeated him uh it would would have 446 00:19:58,919 --> 00:20:03,760 been worse I would rather look at it 447 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:07,840 that he had a fantastic opportunity 448 00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:11,000 America was sunk it it The Wall Street 449 00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:13,600 was defunct bankrupt the country was 450 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:16,200 mired in unpopular Wars he could have 451 00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:19,240 been the FDR he could have really 452 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:21,080 changed America and as we an EMB like 453 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:23,000 the one the one of course he was a 454 00:20:21,080 --> 00:20:25,679 professor I mean the last guy had the 455 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:29,039 The Alibi of being stupid but President 456 00:20:25,679 --> 00:20:31,039 Obama is anything but stupid now I mean 457 00:20:29,039 --> 00:20:33,240 of course compared frankly with Hillary 458 00:20:31,039 --> 00:20:36,320 Clinton or Donald Trump he's a more 459 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:38,760 attractive uh figure but I I rather 460 00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:42,640 think his president say will be seen as 461 00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:45,159 a kind of nothing 8 years that no 462 00:20:42,640 --> 00:20:46,960 nothing really went badly wrong but 463 00:20:45,159 --> 00:20:48,919 nothing actually really changed for the 464 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:50,039 better either I mean you you mentioned 465 00:20:48,919 --> 00:20:52,280 race 466 00:20:50,039 --> 00:20:54,520 Professor black people are being gunned 467 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:57,080 down by by police officers on the 468 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:59,280 streets of the US at a rate that I've 469 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,360 never seen in my lifetime yeah correct 470 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,200 but at the same time on the 471 00:21:00,360 --> 00:21:04,400 international platform he did make the 472 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:08,600 peace approaches at least see he he 473 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:12,240 avoided war with Iran which a right-wing 474 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:16,440 Republican might not have avoided he 475 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:19,000 avoided uh a war with Russia although 476 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:21,480 the confrontation in Syria is now a very 477 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:25,159 uh dangerous place and he may have teed 478 00:21:21,480 --> 00:21:27,400 up a war uh but he could have done 479 00:21:25,159 --> 00:21:29,600 better that's all I'm saying he was the 480 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:33,240 first africanamerican and he was elected 481 00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:36,320 with such a gale of uh idealistic 482 00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:38,440 support he was so clever I met him once 483 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:40,159 walked on a march with him standing 484 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:42,360 shoulder to- shoulder long before he was 485 00:21:40,159 --> 00:21:47,440 president of course and I was struck by 486 00:21:42,360 --> 00:21:50,279 how donish how professorial uh he was um 487 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:54,520 anyway enough about Barack Obama what 488 00:21:50,279 --> 00:21:58,159 about the future what's the likely 489 00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:59,720 foreign policy implications of a trump 490 00:21:58,159 --> 00:22:02,880 victory 491 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:04,919 will his first meeting be with President 492 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,840 Putin do you 493 00:22:04,919 --> 00:22:08,600 think I don't know that would be a 494 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:10,120 dramatic thing to do you know yeah it 495 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:13,039 would be 496 00:22:10,120 --> 00:22:16,279 dramatic the foreign policy of uh Donald 497 00:22:13,039 --> 00:22:18,159 Trump uh there is a a general set of 498 00:22:16,279 --> 00:22:20,679 statements he's made about questioning 499 00:22:18,159 --> 00:22:24,000 the amount of uh 500 00:22:20,679 --> 00:22:26,360 um sort of support foreign allies of 501 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:28,640 America are giving uh in defending 502 00:22:26,360 --> 00:22:30,720 themselves so in Japan and South Korea 503 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:33,720 and so on as well as in 504 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:35,440 NATO to some extent he's just a more 505 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:37,120 extreme version of most American 506 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,120 Presidents who've always said to the 507 00:22:37,120 --> 00:22:40,679 Europeans and to the Japanese and to the 508 00:22:39,120 --> 00:22:42,679 South Koreans you got to pull your 509 00:22:40,679 --> 00:22:44,159 weight a bit more that there's too much 510 00:22:42,679 --> 00:22:46,480 pressure on the United States we're 511 00:22:44,159 --> 00:22:48,240 giving up too much of our resources we 512 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,360 after all have all these thousands of 513 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,360 troops to defend you you've got to carry 514 00:22:50,360 --> 00:22:54,360 bigger share of the burden he's just 515 00:22:52,360 --> 00:22:57,159 said it out loud and he's questioned it 516 00:22:54,360 --> 00:22:59,039 much more whether he would actually do 517 00:22:57,159 --> 00:23:01,240 anything very much in practice is the 518 00:22:59,039 --> 00:23:03,960 big question what would he actually be 519 00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:06,640 able to do in terms of uh changing the 520 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:09,400 relationship within with NATO and with 521 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,840 and America's role within it and in same 522 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:14,080 in the case of Saudi Arabia in the 523 00:23:10,840 --> 00:23:15,960 Middle East or in South Korea or Japan 524 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,559 that's the difficulty because the 525 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,960 intelligence Community the National 526 00:23:17,559 --> 00:23:20,960 Security communities the military 527 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,000 Community overall those people in the 528 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:25,880 upper echelons of those have generally 529 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:28,240 speaking rejected the overall approach 530 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,880 that Trump has been talking about so 531 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:32,480 when he would be able to get enough 532 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:35,120 people of caliber and experience and so 533 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:37,799 on to serve under him would be a would 534 00:23:35,120 --> 00:23:42,159 be a really interesting question enough 535 00:23:37,799 --> 00:23:45,320 experts um the uh the Persian Gulf 536 00:23:42,159 --> 00:23:48,840 countries Saudi Arabia ital have been 537 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:51,679 throwing Millions perhaps vainly uh into 538 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:55,080 the Clinton coffers over these last 539 00:23:51,679 --> 00:23:57,360 years they've lost out big time uh I 540 00:23:55,080 --> 00:24:01,159 don't think Donald Trump has much time 541 00:23:57,360 --> 00:24:03,880 for the the uh potentates of the Persian 542 00:24:01,159 --> 00:24:07,039 Gulf area do you think there might be a 543 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:08,679 a change of emphasis Visa the Arab world 544 00:24:07,039 --> 00:24:10,720 with Trump as 545 00:24:08,679 --> 00:24:12,320 president that's difficult to say 546 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,960 because his attitude towards Israel 547 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:16,559 hasn't been particularly critical in 548 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:20,000 fact he's gone out of his way to court 549 00:24:16,559 --> 00:24:22,320 Israel he started off not very critical 550 00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:24,360 but he did make a stand in the beginning 551 00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:26,600 yeah many many candidates for the 552 00:24:24,360 --> 00:24:28,679 presidency start off critical of Israel 553 00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,880 at the beginning of their campaign uh 554 00:24:28,679 --> 00:24:33,760 just like Barack Obama did and they end 555 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:37,279 up somewhere else by the end of it 556 00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:39,720 Israel is the sort of strongest armed 557 00:24:37,279 --> 00:24:42,000 power in the M he's not going to turn 558 00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:44,600 his back on Israel but he might just 559 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:47,279 watch this space turn his back take a 560 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:51,000 very different stance towards Saudi 561 00:24:47,279 --> 00:24:54,360 Arabia and the other cluster of 562 00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:56,200 satrapies uh around it the Yemen War for 563 00:24:54,360 --> 00:24:57,840 example you might take a very very 564 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,039 different point of view well we don't 565 00:24:57,840 --> 00:25:01,919 know the 566 00:24:59,039 --> 00:25:05,559 of course it could be President Clinton 567 00:25:01,919 --> 00:25:06,840 thei we'll have to wait until later in 568 00:25:05,559 --> 00:25:10,080 the morning but it's looking 569 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:12,559 increasingly like President Donald Trump 570 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:14,880 Professor I sincerely mean it alas we're 571 00:25:12,559 --> 00:25:17,600 out of time that's all we've got time 572 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:20,880 for but you can stay in touch with us on 573 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:23,480 social media on Twitter rtor Sputnik on 574 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:25,960 Facebook Sputnik on Russia today it's 575 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:30,320 goodbye from MRI and from me George 576 00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:30,320 Gallow it's been presidential 577 00:25:30,799 --> 00:25:33,799 all 578 00:25:40,940 --> 00:25:44,329 [Music]